Jamie dimon says the economy is on the verge of a recession and the stock market could fall another easy 20 from here we also have Jim Cramer talking about how investors should raise cash ahead of a Down year and we have the IMF warning worst is yet to come for World economy the market is in such a bad place and so many people are just leaving the market or are selling are doing everything that we've been taught not to do but are feeling like they're stuck in this place where they have to to conserve Capital they have to sell they have to stop buying I want to talk to you today about these different articles and tell you what I'm doing at a time like this because it is different from what we're seeing online now I do want to apologize my voice sounds a little bit weird today I think I might have caught something in Nashville or just maybe used my voice a little bit too much uh during some of those live music sessions but uh we're gonna get through it here I do want to say too there is a link underneath the video to MooMoo where you can get up to 15 free stocks thousands of dollars of free money and it does help me out too so it's a great place to get some free money start by depositing a hundred dollars and you can deposit more if you want more free stocks now the 10-year treasury is up to nearly 3.9 percent was nearly four percent earlier today which was causing the market to drop pretty heavily earlier in the day and this isn't the end of the day yet but I have to make this video now so who knows how the day is going to end up but we have the 30-year fixed rate mortgage 7.33 for someone with 740 credit score it was up at 7.4 percent earlier today and if you drop down a little bit you can see up to an eight percent mortgage rate which is insane this is really really high and it's causing a lot of people to probably rightfully point out that the market probably will collapse just because people can't pay for these kinds of home prices with these high mortgage rates which is great for these kinds of cash buyers if you're someone that can buy a house in cash or even if you assume that the fed's going to lower rates at some point if you can make the numbers work now where cash flows you can probably refinance down the road the dxy also was pumping up earlier today nearly 114 now down to 112.5 it will be interesting to see with earnings coming out here over the next few weeks what people make or what these different companies make because of constant currency a lot of these global companies will lose money because of the fact that the dollars High compared to to Every Other Nation and we denominate in in US dollars so a lot of these other nations are falling to the US dollar and it will definitely affect the earnings now let's get to some of the more more interesting things first of all the bank of England forced to buy inflation linked bonds so we had heard last week that bank of England was forced to buy bonds basically stopping an economic collapse in their pension system now they're forced to buy even more with these inflation link bonds now this is obviously another sign that the global economy is kind of collapsing and crumbling around the U.S and in the US I suppose too but this is a really tough time and they're forced to continue to go out and put more money into the system so it will be interesting to see what the US does if they continue to make it worse for all these other countries and just try to prop up the us or if they do get a little bit less aggressive in these rate hikes now Jim Cramer just said investors should raise cash ahead of a Down ear this might be a good thing that he's saying this because there's a running joke that you should always do the opposite of what Jim Cramer does now that's just a joke but it has been shown to be right all the time because he does Echo investors feelings and oftentimes investors feelings are the opposite of what they should actually be doing right being really greedy when markets are going up being really fearful when markets are down now I don't believe this is a great idea what I've been doing all year is just dollar cost averaging and I talked about at the beginning of the year I had a significant amount of cash sitting around and how I was deploying it but I wasn't going to go buy the dips super aggressively I was just going to continue to dollar cost average throughout the year and so far that hasn't been horrible I mean yes the Market's down but I am getting lower and lower prices and I think what's important is typically we see the market bottoms before we actually see the economy bottom stocks I've usually bought them about six months before the economy has bottomed and as much as 10 months before the economic decline is over it's coming from Forbes the reason for this is people try to price this in early they don't want to miss out on the upside so we try to buy in before we've seen the worst of everything so right now we only see bad things ahead this could easily change right he just says again what people are thinking essentially a lot of the time uh he very rarely takes a contrarian stance so when you see nothing but bad in front of you that means the market has priced that in typically and they haven't priced in much good news so I wouldn't be raising cash necessarily I think there's definitely a chance that we could fall further but I wouldn't be going out and selling assets at these prices even if I did think that we could fall further I'd be working my tail off to make more money uh on the other side now I realize not everyone can do that but that's where a lot of this comes down to preparation now Jamie dimon also says that the economy is on the verge of a recession and the stock market could fall another easy 20 from here now he talks about why this is in this interview but a couple different things to pay attention to first of all he says that it could fall another easy 20 right of course we could fall another 20 we could fall 50 we could fall 80 percent what are the chances of that though right what are the chances that we're going to fall 20 well it's possible but yeah it's where you have to pay attention to the wording he says it could fall another easy 20 percent he's not saying that's likely and while he is a big person in the financial industry a big pundit the fact is that he is not the be-all and end-all he says in this interview he doesn't know where markets are going to bottom but they could fall more now I have to say he does have some kind of thing to gain from saying a statement like this right their investment revenues I'm sure are down over the last couple years right they have less IPOs uh less specs less people investing with them I'm sure as well making less money so saying that you could fall another 20 keeps people interested they they look towards him for guidance and if he's saying we could fall another 20 percent and then they sell and then they buy back in and they do more activity that could benefit their trading just something to pay attention to right it keeps people wanting to keep their money with him because he's got some kind of inside knowledge if we do fall a little bit further then you could say hey we could easily go up another 20 after the market starts to turn around and then people think think he's a genius or something like that I could always be wrong right maybe he's not trying to do this or anything but I think that just saying that the market could fall another 20 is pretty obvious and then like I said earlier IMF one's worst is yet to come for World economy they lowered their growth outlook for 2023 and suggested interest rate hikes could spur a harsh Global recession the international monetary fund said on Tuesday that the world economy was headed for Stormy Waters as it downgrade Global growth projections for the year so they lowered them pretty significantly from about 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent this is for next year and at the beginning of the year they said that they expected 4.4 percent growth in 2022 and 3.8 percent in 2023 so they continue to lower them I don't think this really holds much value I mean this is kind of like the FED saying that that inflation is transitory them saying yeah we're going to grow four percent or 3.8 percent now 3.2 percent now 2.7 percent right of course the Market's going to price this in but I don't think it really affects us as investors uh because I don't think they really know what they're talking about much more than any of us right it's hard to tell where the economy is going to go and what all these different puzzle pieces are going to do a year down the line we don't know what's going to happen so I think right now my focus is on continuing to dollar cost to average now I will say I'm not just buying anything blindly and this is just an example with fubotv I haven't looked at fubo's business that in depth recently but these are the kinds of stocks that I don't want to buy right now for a couple different reasons if you look and we'll talk about crypto in a second right their revenue is increasing but then they had a down quarter and maybe this is just one down quarter in Revenue maybe it will continue you don't want to be in a Growth Company though when it starts to drop off and more importantly more predictably these kinds of companies have to continue to sell shares or dilute shareholders you can see that they they grew share count a significant amount I mean we're talking about what 28 million shares out of 150 7 so they diluted 15 or something like that in a quarter they have negative cash flow they have decreasing cash while they're increasing debt so that's a double whammy when debt is going up and the share count is going up these are the companies I don't want to buy right because they're putting they're they're not in a great financial situation and they're putting you at a higher and higher risk of losing all your money because of some kind of bankruptcy but even even if they don't go bankrupt they are putting themselves in a worse and worse situation moving forward right with raising debt costs and even if debt costs weren't Rising um like percentage-wise right they're gonna have to pay higher and higher amounts of debt you're making less and less if they ever become profitable even if we get through this recession the fact is that they're going to be in a tough spot compared to a company let's say like um let's say Google right Google is still in a tough position with your ad business but their revenue is still increasing each year their ebitda is still high they still have cash flows they're still buying back shares they still have a very high return on Capital employed they still have a great cash position so even a company like this that maybe isn't growing as quickly as they were before not even close to as quickly as they were before they're still going to be fine once we get out of this and once the economy turns around while their price is going down and it's probably for good reason the fact is they're still going to be fine after we come out of this kind of recession now if you're looking at something like crypto I think crypto still worth dollar cost everything into now I'm sticking with Bitcoin specifically right now as I've said all year round but take a look at what would have happened if you had started dollar cost after five years ago right you'd be up 300 now maybe you're saying that's cherry picking let's go three years back okay you'd be up 134 what if you went two years back a lot of people think oh well if you went two years back start buying in 2020 uh you would be down now you'd still be up 13 how about one year and a lot of people will be surprised by this yes seven percent down only seven percent if you had started buying near the peak of the market last year seven percent down and maybe you've heard that's because you would have been buying at some of the best times but privates just because you're not buying On Emotion right you would have been buying at bad times here uh back in June you have been buying at really good times because you would have been buying actually lower than we are now but the fact is if you don't just throw in a lump sum right up front but you just slowly down across the average you're gonna do fine even if you look six months back you'll be up so I'm gonna continue to dollar cost average in Bitcoin try not to be emotional try to invest similar amounts or the same amount for a consistent amount of time and the fact is Bitcoin has actually been pretty non-volatile when you compare this to the treasury markets right treasury markets are going up pretty significantly U.S treasury 10 years at 3.9 percent and has been spiking all year Bitcoin has been pretty non-volatile over the last couple months right so it is interesting to watch bitcoin's still right around 19 to 25 000 all summer long and all fall so far and we still do have some different projects like ethereum I still think are going to do well in the long term I'm just not dollar cost averaging yet but I'm getting closer to you can see I just made a video on this yesterday how The Inferno is here and they've been burning more and more ethereum over the last couple days we went from 13 000 ethereum issued since the merge which is what nearly a month ago now to now just eight thousand so when the network is used you can see this kind of deflation that happens pretty quickly we had five thousand five hundred ethereum burned or right around five thousand uh just in a few days so that's pretty cool so there's still going to be Innovation there's still going to be money to be made and companies are going to continue making money hopefully as well if you're in the right companies even with a recession but don't get scared don't let people throw you off of your investing plans just because they say that you should raise raise cash or we could fall another 20 now that's not Financial advice but it kind of is right don't let other people influence your decisions and you'll probably become a better investor for it now of course you always have to update your line of thinking if things get way worse in the economy we could fall further but that's why I'm just saying that I am consistently dollar cost averaging right we could always fall further but a lot of these companies that I'm buying will be fine a lot of these cryptos I think will be fine and yours down the line I'll be happy that I was investing in some of the darkest times where people's were so worried thank you so much I appreciate it and I will see you in the next one check out MooMoo underneath the video bye
0 Comments