foreign [Music] K or 16k for Bitcoin first which one gets tagged this week I think this week is going to be a range breaking week for trades uh which means that it's a big week ahead we have huge economic calendar events and I thought let's start off with this tweet over here by Alpha BTC he says this week is the ma the market is going to be a range breaker with PPI and CPI numbers released Wednesday and Thursday we find out if the feds hikes have made enough of an impact to start thinking uh of a softing softening landing and then he says my thinking is that they won't be and markets or Bitcoin at least will have its next leg down so as you can see Wednesday Thursday all marked in red on the Forex calendar of here the economic calendar uh big big big events coming up uh just don't mistaken this with the actual uh CPI um raises in interest rates so anything that's only coming in early November but this will kind of give guidance on what the probability is of a 75 basis point Ray kite or 50 or 100 for that matter so we'll get a lot more information regarding that pure speculation as to what they were actually raised by later on in the year so with that being said CPI numbers will be released on October the 13th and we've had nine reports so far this year and the S P 500 has traded negative on seven of the nine days that the report came out the last report sent the S P 500 falling more than four percent which is rare for inflation days so last week we were expecting the expansion of that volatile move to start to take place at least the etchings of that to to be shown but we continue to remain within a tight range and all that means is the delay basically suggests that the next move is going to be even bigger than expected uh so definitely definitely a week to be focused and I have noticed that a lot of people who usually were here a couple of weeks ago a couple of months ago have started to fall off and this is typically what you expect to happen right before these major volatile moves so definitely time to be focused the one hopium tweet that I do have from the trading tank over here is that Major Market bottoms have occurred in October more than any other month so although September has been recorded historically as one of the worst months the the major major bottoms or macro bottoms you have it comparing to all the other months nine of them happened in the month of October for all the biggest crashes recorded in history so will this time be any different and we'll just have to wait and see I mean I definitely think that if you do have a dollar cost averaging portfolio now is maybe the time to be a little bit more aggressive on that uh and and keyword at dollar cost averaging portfolio I'm not telling you to go all in by in the dip or anything because I'm definitely not but if I am going to be allocating for example let's say you usually allocate about a hundred dollars um a week or a thousand dollars a week depending on on kind of where you're at financially maybe now is the time to start doubling that and going with uh 200 or 2 000 a week instead looking at this chart over here um this shows ultimately our range which is the two week chart you can't see how tight that range has been and I will continue to still wait for the ultimate capitulation into this level uh this is officially four months that have closed outside of the lower band and the next uh two weeks are now going to be focusing on is it going to be is it going to lead into uh four and a half months which is the longest that we've had um and let's see let's see what happens if we're going to hit this level or not I would definitely as a betting man I I think that it is going to be inevitable that we get to that zone eventually now moving on to this chart over here this was from last week week I did say that the thinking behind this particular trade and you won't see any red over here because we did eliminate the risk completely on the straight it is Bitcoin on the weekly chart stuck below all the important moving averages and exponential moving averages too and you can see we are completely in profit on this trade the Solana trade which was our long has been completely stopped out and now when you look at this trade I want you to ask yourself is this bullish or bearish and you'll find that there's actually a lot of people debating this weekly close can you consider this bullish or bearish I mean you can't see a big wick that's been left behind I tend to lean towards this is more more bearish and bullish simply for the matter of fact that again you're using this 255 as a resistance area rejecting off of that Zone plus you have a downtrend over here which is also being well respected from a technical analysis point of view one thing I'm going to change on this chart is I'm just gonna ever so slightly move the TP level up just in line with the Bollinger band and that is the trade idea that's coming in now at sixteen thousand dollars so with that being said have a look over here at this tweet from pintoshi he says that uh was this weekly candle bullish or bearish and why and you have a lot of different opinions uh in here but one who might I definitely respect is cheds and he says bearish that is a spinning top it could be called high wave long upper Shadow reflects a bounce and attempt to reverse momentum which failed the trend gained strength after the mean reversion and then they get into like a little bit of a debate over here but nevertheless what I wanted to show you is this if you were to Google that Candlestick pattern the inverted Hammer it's supposed to be a bullish reversal Candlestick but it really just acts as a bearish continuation 65 of the time so um basically there's a 65 percent chance that that that that will probably be bearish continuation to the downside so be cognizant of that speaking of the consolidation within this range of here you have uh liver coin over here he says Bitcoin hit levels of low volatility not seen in two years while it's reasonable to expect a large move now more than ever it's also important to note that there were two periods in the past when Bitcoin spent more than 40 days consolidating after hitting these levels and let's click on this chart over here you can see that happened all the way back in July of 2020 and that obviously led to a massive consolidation and then and then a big move to the upside and the other time was in October similar to where we add now of 2019 and if I'm not mistaken this looks like a big consolidation around that 6K level and then we we fell all the way down to three thousand dollars and I kind of feel that uh that's that is more of the picture that I'm seeing I'll show you on the next chart now but it looks very similar to that 2018 time period when when you consolidate with lower highs and a flat bottom 18K is similar to back then what was six thousand dollars and then we fell through so definitely to me still risk remains to the downside not to say that you shouldn't be bidding and taking Longs on strong areas of horizontal support I'm always an advocate of that with this chart over here um I did mention that we would break this line down at some point which we did so we've broken down the support line and then I told you guys look that's not a license just because you break down a diagonal is definitely not a license to go along uh if anything it's just a license to pay attention to a range that may be forming and you have this is kind of the primary range that we have and until this level gets taken out over here um there isn't really much that's changed other than a Slowdown in momentum ultimately you now want to be watching for is this chart this is the inverter charges to just to catch you up to date if you're someone that's new here meaning that if this goes up it's actually bearish and the market means it's actually going down so you'll be looking for this level to get taken out or this level to get taken out and tying in with the first tweet over there uh this week should be a range it should break the range either to the up or the downside uh we're going to be looking at that kind of volatility so you want to be watching anywhere between uh this eighteen thousand dollar level eighteen thousand if we break that uh Above This level then obviously we're going much lower and if you break below this level over here at 22 500 uh then you can say that well things are turning around and we're going bullish but from a macro economic perspective there really isn't much that's on the bull side I must be honest with you uh other than uh pure opium and speculators that are hoping for something great to happen so looking at the chart over here with the Bollinger Bands on The Daily we did outline the prior times that we had such tight consolidations in at least in the last year or so and that happened in December uh again in April and then we had over here in June we had in July and then we have this current one which is much much tighter I'm sure you can all agree that if you look at this it's a lot tighter than those those previous consolidating times um we are currently caught right in the middle Bollinger band and you can see that it is trying to hold that as resistance at about nineteen thousand three hundred uh once that level gets lost your low Bollinger band is at 18.5 but this all ties in with exactly what I've shown you over here the overall range the top of the Bollinger band and the bottom of the Bollinger band is essentially a range once we properly break through one or the other side either the top or the bottom will know the ultimate direction for this move so keep your eye on that and then this is a long tweet thread I'm not going to read through it all now but I really encourage you all to go and have a look at it it essentially explains yeah I'll just read the intro it says the US dollar is Wrecking Havoc globally and it's only just starting to pick up momentum and he goes in detail I'll give it a like and then I'm going to retweet it go have a look on my on my Twitter the link is in the description or you can just look at the top there that's at Kyle dupes make sure you type it in exactly like that so you don't go to one of the um the copycat scam ones but go and have a read through this it's absolutely brilliant and it basically it shows the reasons why the dexie or the dollar Index is most likely just going to continue on to the upside over time and I put this in last week's daily candle newsletter also sign up to that if you're not already it is free and I said look we have a primary Zone over here about 110 that seems to be acting as support we use that as a springboard bounced off and now we are continuing to the upside and if if and all this economic data comes out negative this week I'd imagine that the Dixie will continue to be the flight to safety um that most people are treating it as and therefore you're going to be targeting about 114 and look I I'm not the biggest believer in double tops double bottoms triple tops triple bottoms I think that the more times that you hit at a certain area of resistance or support the more likely it is to eventually crack and break through and therefore the next time that we come up here I think we probably will break through as I've drawn these lines come back down retest of 114 and then we're going to continue on to the six month key level now the reason that's important is because this ultimately suggests that the the FED probably won't be pivoting um at least this is what the Dixie chart is telling us and uh therefore it's not over yet things are still maybe going to drag on a little bit longer and I think that ultimately I'm not a macro Economist but they're probably gonna deem that we eventually are in inflation so I mean in inflation in recession so keep your eye on that very very important over there what about the stock market how did that perform um and you can see as I just mentioned right now the double tops double bottoms triple bottoms I don't really believe in it look how many times this level's been hit um ultimately we're going to fall through this area what what I was hoping would bounce up hold this as support is now flipped into resistance so I could pretty much just change that to resistance over there that is now going to be your next level of resistance I personally was looking for this level to get tagged up here didn't happen next level of interest is the key quarterly Zone um whether that happens this week or over time I'm not 100 sure but this is the target this is the ultimate Target that I'm watching over there let's see what the vix has done look at that vix has kicked up massively um on today's open so you can see it has open look at that massive Gap over there you have a bit of a trend line that was forming stuck above the moving average and then the 30 Mark is the risk line meaning that any time that you're above that line anything anything above 30 is essentially a highly volatile space and increasing uh vix which is the volatility indicator for the S P 500 is usually a decreasing stock market so um and which bleeds through into crypto so watching this level once you once you get above that 35 markets per probably going to expand very quickly much higher into the 40 zone so keep an eye on that let's see the S P 500 futures uh what this one's doing looks similar to the NASDAQ over there um same thing I am going to expect lower prices here's your ultimate low now there is a lot of liquidity over here I told you that this was a no-brainer buy for many people at least as a short-term bound so for those in traditional markets and the reason why is because all the liquidity was going to be lying under this area over here not as many people probably bought that zone as what would have bought over here the reason why is here they had confidence they they knew there was going to be liquidity under here so as soon as you broke that people would have started to bid also if you turn that onto a weekly chart it was directly in line with the 200-week moving average so now we need to see if you cross even a tick below the prior week on the S P 500 futures then I would say that this is going to go around rapidly to the downside and look at that massive Wick that's been left behind that is not necessarily a healthy looking candle um Mark your put your charts on with I'm going to actually do it now I'm going to put an alarm or an alert underneath that previous week's week low there we go so if that area gets taken out I think it can move very quickly into the main target Zone uh which is not that far away anymore it's only let's say from current levels that's only about a 10 move and it will be right in the zone over there uh the yields let's look at the 10-year yield very very strong strong weekly close look at that massive candle to the upside over there uh let's put it on a daily chart still targeting ultimately anywhere between that uh 4.2 to 4.5 percent level on the 10-year yields which makes it tough right that makes it tough for for crypto and equities uh it's a liquidity indicator suggesting that uh there is hardly any liquidity in the markets everybody is fleeing into government bonds over there okay um I wanted to show this as well because this should start to gain momentum very quickly if the fractal remains true in line with what I showed you now that uh some of them the biggest crashes in in history the bottoms occurred in the month of October and he says you can see the 2022 S P 500 bear Market cycle is following those of 1937 2000 and 2008 and based on this we are due for new lows into October the 25th with a short-term bottom around then uh give or take a couple of days so this one's obviously calling for much much worse in the long run but it still ultimately suggests that October should have acceleration to the downside and we do also have the uh quarterly earnings reports that are coming out from big companies things all sorts of companies but like uh Apple Microsoft big tech companies and these tend to move markets I saw a tweet that showed um that Apple alone their market cap is bigger than all of the energy companies combined which is just absolutely mind-boggling so you can imagine if those earning reports are not good what that can actually do to the markets and here you you have Callum Thomas he says that record quantitative easing to quantitative tightening you didn't think that you could Escape unscathed from this monetary Mill storm did you and look at how much they've already removed from the balance sheet over there and and this typically is not really the environment that you can expect the whole Market to reverse especially crypto like I mean guys we have to be real with ourselves like uh your altcoins and things do you honestly think that with what's going on that these are going to be the first uh most risky assets of all time in a quantitative tightening process to start to just enter into bull run it it's so unlikely um definitely safer playing the uh the shorts than the lungs and um I definitely think that yeah being an investor it's it's you should probably take it easy focus on your career focus on uh building as much wealth as you possibly can saving as much money as you can to buy the ultimate bottom when it comes I still stand by what I've said they're 10 to 12K I think is the ultimate zone to be watching um I I will start buying around 16k but 10 to 12K is when I when I start to get in aggressively at least that's the area that makes the most sense as a bottom and you have quantitative tightening like this enormous uh reduction of the balance sheet over there you can't expect that things are just going to start to Rally especially not the riskiest assets uh in markets so and with that being said I want to give a quick shout out to um my sponsor for the day which is prime xbt check them out over there this is definitely more for high leverage margin trading so for those of you who are probably sculpt Traders uh or you're just like high leverage trading uh they mostly use cross margin you can get a sign up bonus if you use my promo code Kyle dupes then you get access to up to seven thousand dollars in sign up bonuses and then also check out uh they do have Forex pairs on there as well so I think Forex is going to be volatile leading into this week as well okay with that being said let's move on to the three-day chart which is still in its parallel downtrend um and I mean ask yourself very very simply put uh what what was the best play every time that price came into these levels over there so you had that you had that and ultimately you have that again same thing what should you be doing I mean I think it's a rhetorical question over here probably not buying into resistance I'm not necessarily telling you that you must go short but probably buying into resistance is not the best idea if you do get a spike to the upside right now and you're looking at reaching this trend line at about twenty thousand five hundred dollars so remember each time I just keep moving that over at first we are watching this Zone which meant we could have got 21.5 and then those levels just go down and down and down and down because it's a downtrend it's a downtrend and um therefore you I mean you really have to ask yourself from an investor standpoint if there's any decent risk to reward in uh buying or bidding at these lows over here I think as a Trader yes that might make sense but as an investor I still don't think it makes sense you want to see much more confidence of major areas being broken and the macd over here it is starting to to reach over here it looks like it's going to start to roll over on the three-day the histogram is losing strength and let's see if this starts to turn over which ties in with what I'm seeing with the momentum oscillators on other type and Frames then you can expect and I did mention this already last week then you can expect a little bit further downside and how far that goes is the question but we'll we'll cross that road when we get there so looking at this chart I think this is one of the most important charts and makes the most sense it's BTC daily RSI and it's telling you everything that you need to know so similar to the whole downtrend that I just showed you when you get to these levels and then you have the RSI which keeps creating uh these these kind of bare flags that break down and down and down and now we're kind of in the same level over there so if you look at it on this chart uh ultimately I did show you there is also an upper resistance level and RSI almost made it into that zone and started to turn back down uh so that would be something that's bearish but the most bearish thing of all is I did warn you guys last week I said that look you'd want to see a couple of days holding above you and then you're going to be looking for the next higher low of which you can still look for the next high low but ultimately risk remains to the downside when you caught below all those important moving averages and that is exactly what's happening look at how every single week over the last three days has rejected from those moving averages that is not what you want to see therefore I would say that risk remains to the downside so a lower time frame momentum oscillators on the four hour are starting to turn over you're still caught within this tight triangle over here here's your one two three lows technically speaking now I'm talking more to the Traders not the investors technically speaking you could be bidding this region over here with your stop loss underneath the previous lows uh coming in at about eighteen thousand six hundred but you have to ask yourself what is the risk to reward what is your upside potential because I think there's more resistance over here then there is support meaning that the Bears definitely um have much more control in this situation price is stuck below both the 50 and the 200 EMA and you have this massive cluster of resistance coming in uh between about twenty thousand five hundred and twenty one thousand dollars uh ultimately what I'm saying is that I think that Bulls may have run out of time they were meant to run this last week they were meant to get their levels last week and it seems like they have failed so it's not looking good for them let's look at the different time frames over here using our momentum oscillators I'm going to start off uh first High time frame on the weekly and you can see weekly this still has a long way to go down and it looks like the stochastic RSI the Orange is just breaking below the white if this starts to roll over properly um then there could be a lot of downside momentum to come and that's all happening right whilst you are at a very what I would say is a weak area of support daily is still coming to the downside and this can go down quite far right so this can go all the way down uh to pretty much a zero read and currently it's sitting at about 34 to 40. uh so keep an eye out on that the low time frames over here four hour you can see that the bbwp which is the volatility indicator is at extreme lows and let's say on The Daily because this came back down and started Contracting it started expanding like that and I told you guys last week I said said watch for this because what may happen is you may see this come up come back down like that and contract and print new blue bars like that signaling that the volatility uh is extremely extremely low and then naturally that's going to expand uh eventually it's it's a guarantee that it will expand and now you need to see if that expansion starts to take place and the RSI is coming back down which it is it's coming back down if it comes back into the purple Zone over here that would be incredibly bearish and mean that I would now move all bullish scenarios off the table and start to look back down towards much lower prices so I think guys that brings us to the end I think that summarizes everything uh this week for most of you I would say for most of you out there uh retail Traders you know you have you have your day job and you're working on your on your other business Endeavors you're probably better off not trading the market this week you're probably better off just waiting for the economic data to all come out all for the whole uh calendar to to finish and then have clearer direction of if we break towards the up or the downside and then you can make your uh your high probability trading decision based off of that information at a later stage but anyways I think the stream has been long enough I appreciate each and every one of you thank you all for watching uh please make sure that you join most of the crypto banter Community who have already signed up using buy bits or bitget because we do have the trading competition which is coming up in I think probably from next week I think it begins but you can register this week you only need 250 dollars to trade and I think that the best thing about the trading competition is not necessarily to try and win it but you'll find that you learn a lot about yourself whilst doing the trading competition you learn about your strengths and your weaknesses and using only 250 dollars and I think that it's kind of like school fees money in the sense that that it's it's better to take that leap and to take the trades and learn about your mistakes you grow a lot a lot quicker than what you would by reading books or watching tons of YouTube videos because uh you're actually in the action right so have a look at those uh these are the links I believe these are also the links to join um let me just see James are you able to speak James is at home he cut his finger guys are you able to speak James is there is the link for the competition in here yeah that's it right right in the Bible it was the sign up link and another book gets the sign up link once you okay so these are these are if you want to join the actual competition if you don't have an exchange then it would be these links that are below over here and that gives you access to sign up bonuses so if you don't have an account use one of these if you do have an account with anyone from crypto banter then this is where you would join the competition and that is it guys uh shoot your questions through on Discord if you do have any questions just tag me in the general chat or the trades group and then I'll try and jump on there and answer some of your questions later today and that's it I will see you all on the next video cheers for now foreign
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